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A Lot to Think About


A thorough examination of a seven card stud hand at the Bellagio

I played this hand recently in the 1500-3000 game at Bellagio and think you might find it interesting.


6 handed 300 ante.

Low card brings it in

P1: 9 (xx) raises to 1500

Me: K(KT) re-raise to 3000

P2: 8 (xx) call

fold fold fold

P1: call

Both P1 and P2 are aggressive, not as tight as me, and very good, tricky players.

P1: 9-7 (xx)

Me: K-7 (KT)

P2: 8-8 (xx)

P2 checks, P1 checks, I check. (This play is not obviously correct, but I contend that you must sometimes check here to make players like P2 think twice about check-raising you)

P1: 9-7-6 (xx)

Me: K-7-4 (KT)

P2: 8-8-3 (xx)

P2 bets, P1 calls, I call.

P1: 9-7-6-6 (xx)

Me: K-7-4-J (KT)

P2: 8-8-3-2 (xx)

P2 checks, P1 bets. Now what do you do? You think about the answer for a bit and then continue.

This will be a long analysis, but I hope it will give the reader an idea of the things one must consider when playing a game like Stud 8/Better.

First we have to try to put P1 and P2 on hands.

P1 is easy. Though there are some other hands that P1 could have, 9's and 6's is the most likely by far. Buried Aces should have raised on 5th street. I am lumping a buried pair smaller than Kings in here too. I felt comfortable basing my decision on P1 having two pair.

P2 is much more difficult. There are three basic possibilities.

1. One pair and a low made.

2. 2 pair with a low draw.

3. Three 8's or better

I have put them in order of frequency. Let's look at each possibility.

1. The argument for this hand is simply that it is the most likely hand for P2 to have started. Remember P2 has 8-8-3-2 up. So, if P2 started with a low straight draw like 8-6-5 he now has a low made and one pair. The argument against is I feel that the check on fourth street was a rather large mistake if he had this hand. A bet would have probably forced P1 to fold. P2 would gain quite a bit of scoop equity by getting the 9\'s to fold. Now all he would need would be to make two pair and have me not improve my K's. Much easier than getting both the 9's and the K's to miss.

2. The argument for this hand is he could have started with some hand like 8-A-3 or 8-7-3 suited. Also he might have made a weak call with 8-6-3 two or three suited. The argument against is the same as above.

3. The argument for this hand is that this would explain the check on fourth street. He would not want to lose either of us if he had three 8's. This also influenced my check on fourth street. The argument against is that trips is statistically less likely and he would have to have exactly 8-8-A or else he made a weak call with 8-8-low on third street.

I also felt that P2 would check any of these hands on sixth street. P1 would raise P2's bet almost 100% of the time, even in the face of possible trips. The value P1 picks up by getting me to fold my K's it too great to pass up. And P2 does not want me facing a double bet. He wants me in with all of his possible hands. With the low, he wins half of a larger pot if I call and I don't figure to cost him half of the pot if he hits trips or aces up on the river to draw out on P1. With two low pair, he will win the high no matter what I hit if he fills up, and he wins more when he hits the low. Check raising with the trips is clear.

I have three choices. Let's look at each.

Raising: I feel that raising is disastrous against all of P2's hands. If P2 has trips, raising is obviously wrong. If P2 has two pair, he will just call, and then even if P1 makes a weak fold, which would have been unlikely, P2 will pay me off for one bet on the river even if he misses his low draw. If P2 has a made low, he will just call to keep P1 in. I will then have to continue my bluff on seventh street if I miss on the river, but P2 will also try to keep P1 in on the river if he doesn\'t improve. Conversely, he will try to get P1 out if he improves to two pair, hoping I am bluffing. Basically P2 can play me perfectly, to his benefit, if I try to bluff raise here. My chances of actually bluffing half or all of the pot are very minute.

Calling: Against hands 1 and 3, calling is wrong. P2 will raise with both of them and it will be two bets back to me. I will have to fold, and will have cost myself a bet. The only time it is right to call, is against P2's two pair. But, even then, P1 or P2 might beat K's up on the river. If I knew for sure that P2 had two pair, I would call. But, the reward does not justify the loss of a dead bet when P2 has either hand 1 or 3, which is much more likely than hand 2. I should note that I was totally sure that P1 would re-raise P2's check-raise as P1 has way too much to gain by getting me out on sixth street.

Fold: Given the fact that I decided that a raise was suicide and a call was incorrect, I folded. I do think that this was a very difficult decision to make at the table, and I took more time on this play than any other all night. I do think, however, that the play I chose was clearly right. I am surer that it was correct given the extra time I have spent thinking about it away from the table.

Going back over hands like this and giving it a thorough examination is one of the best ways to improve your game at any level. I feel that I understand 8/Better just a little bit better because of the time I have spent thinking about this hand.

Oh, BTW, P2 just called. Meaning he did have hand 2. But he made his low on the river and split with P1's 9's up. Of course, I had to rabbit hunt my card, and found that I would not have improved. Given their hands, I should have called, but I feel comfortable that I made the right play.

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